For the first time in seven years, the Astros had to go home early in October as their impressive run of seven ALCS Berths came to a close, after losing to the Tigers in the wild card round in a sweep. This has led to concern about how the Astros will bounce back in the near future and fans discussing what they need to do to improve.
A good insight for what they may do now requires a look back to what they did in the past to recover. The early 2010’s Astros were abysmal, with them posting 100 and 90 loss seasons from 2011 through the 2014 season. You would think these four seasons would have been complete wastes for the organizations, but they actually allowed Houston to acquire top draft picks that would eventually be the core of their late 2010s and early 2020’s success.
In baseball, unless you play for New York or Los Angeles, teams with aging players go for a total rebuild of the roster. This route requires a consistent streak of losing seasons to get high draft selections in the hope you can make the most of the picks and build a stronger roster for sustained success in the future. The most important draft during this time was in 2012, when the Astros drafted Carlos Correa and Lance Mcullers who eventually became key parts of the roster.
After the 2014 season concluded, the Astros hired AJ Hinch to be their new manager, along with the roster having been rebuilt with a new young core; the future was starting to look brighter for Houston. 2015 would become the breakout year for the Houston Astros, with them finally achieving a winning season and returning to the postseason with a bang, after taking down the Yankees in the wild card round. However, their efforts would fall short that year with a loss to the eventual world champions that year to the Kansas City Royals. Despite this, 2015 still marked the beginning of the key core of the dynasty years in Houston.
Despite them having an off year in 2016, in 2017, they began their run of seven consecutive ALCS berths alongside getting their first and surely their most honorable World Series win that year. From 2017 through 2023 they consistently made championship and World Series appearances. In addition to their star players, including Altuve winning MVP’s and having Cy young winners like Justin Verlander in their rotation, the Astros and their fans enjoyed a prolonged period of success.
The question now is, what has caused their near term future championship window opportunities to take a pause? The elephant in the room is the cheating scandal that took place in 2017. Even with them having to let go of Jeff Lunhow and AJ Hinch during their off season, they remained just as successful by gaining another championship in 2022. After the 2022 season, the team would begin to get the injury bug. From 2023 through 2024 key players including; Yordan Lavarez, Kyle Tucker, Lance Mcullers Jr, Framber Valdez, and Justin Verlander all missing large periods of time during the season due to injuries. This caused concern for their future with their roster getting older. Usually when your roster begins to age, organizations rely on their farm system to pick them up, however, MLB’s official website ranked them as the worst farm system in the league for 2024.
On the brightside for Houston, the Al West is seemingly currently one of the weaker divisions with Anaheim and the Athletics currently being rebuilt. Houston’s issues in division would either have to be with Seattle or Texas, but both teams have had issues with their respective rosters that would have to be answered in the offseason for either of them to be contenders. Houston’s bigger issue is beating the rest of the American League contenders with it having several young and upcoming teams, and, with an aging roster, it will be tough to have similar success to what they have had in the past. That being said, their 2023 season is looking more and more like it was Houston’s final year of having a chance to win in the near future.
